Three years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and many months of humanitarian assistance, emergency support and financial input, the time may be coming to focus on the recovery and reconstruction of the
Three years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and many months of humanitarian assistance, emergency support and financial input, the time may be coming to focus on the recovery and reconstruction of the nation. Recent, fragile, tentative, and confusing attempts to broker some sort of ceasefire or peace have focussed minds on what next.
The devastating effects of war damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure and productive assets are surpassed only by the horrific hardships and appalling casualties endured by its people.6.2m people are refugees now outside their homeland while over 4.5m are displaced internally. 12,500 deaths amongst civilians combine with an estimated35.5% of its population now eking out survival amongst poverty and daily chaos and disruptions.
Throughout the conflict the government of Ukraine has co-ordinated humanitarian support (like that provided by New Forest for Ukraine), via local authorities and a network of local volunteers.
The US alone has already provided $176bn in aid towards housing, energy, transport, commerce and industry, and agriculture in addition to resources and equipment to fight the war. Other nations have also committed vast sums as well as providing military hardware and training. In May 2024, the SIC (Strategic Investment Council) was established to co-ordinate funding for restoration and rebuilding providing the SPP (Single Payment Pipeline) for public investment. $77bn in aid has also been pledged by the World Bank and International Finance Corporation via a Multilateral Investment Guarantee.
Since the summer of 2022 there has not been much change in the line of main hostilities after the previous initial losses and subsequent regaining of occupied land. During the winter of 2022/23 millions of civilians were left without water, electricity, or heating on many occasions. 2023 saw more intense Russian attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure e.g. on the Kakhovka Dam and widespread air bombardments across all areas increased in 2024.
Those involved in exploratory negotiations for a ceasefire or an end to the war are mindful that this has not only been the biggest European conflict since WW2 but that this war was preceded by Russia illegally annexing Crimea in 2014 and subsequent naval incidents and cyber warfare .Putin may describe the invasion three years ago in terms of a “special military operation”, but the wider world sees it t=for the invasion and atrocity it really is.
In December 2024, the fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment was published by the World Bank Group, the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission and the United Nations to provide a further qualitative description of the war’s impact. This latest of four reports assessed the damage to date as costing $176bn with an estimate of $524 bn to rebuild and restore Ukraine over the next 10 years – $17.32bn of this just for 2025 in terms of immediate recovery and reconstruction should hostilities cease. A most notable finding from the report’s assessment is the fact that Ukraine’s recovery and investments are essential for the resilience of Europe as a whole and in particular to facilitate Ukraine’s integration into the EU. For this reason alone, the EU has made an unwavering commitment to continue and develop its economic, financial, and military support. In partnership the UN has made a $15.8 m contribution.
In May 2024 the Ukrainian Plan was adopted by the EU utilising a reforms Matrix online to enable decision-making and progress monitoring. A year before international financial institutions launched the Ukraine Donor Platform – with the Ukrainian government, G&7 countries and EU. Not since the Marshall Plan post-WW2 has such effective, collaborative mechanisms been established to facilitate the long-term financial and economic security of a nation.
Recovery and reconstruction are being considered in terms of a 10-year period once peace has been secured. An estimate of $524 bn is quoted in the RDNA report of 31.12.24.
Central to all this is the acknowledged aim to Build Back Better – to develop Ukraine as a modern, low-carbon resilient nations. Alongside EU membership the aims are to repair and redevelop energy, transport and to do this with the full engagement and involvement of the municipalities and SMEs (small and medium enterprises).
Build Back Better includes:
- Institutional Alignment
- Economic Transformation
- EU accession
- Private Sector Engagement
- Inclusivity
- Sustainability
- Subsidiarity (regional and local self-government)
Attention has been given to the importance alongside this of the recovery of Ukraine’s social sector, the reconstruction of its infrastructure and non-investment programmes. Housing has been highlighted as the top priority.
The impact on women has become horrifying apparent with 84.7% of families in poverty, of which 35% are women -only households below the subsistence level. The statistics relating to young people’s homelessness, an increase in domestic abuse, food insecurity and loss of education and health provision is alarming. Even worse is the estimation of almost 20,000 Ukrainian children having been forcibly removed to Russia.
Priorities for social improvements post-war will include housing, education and science, healthcare, social protection, transport, a clean safe water supply and sanitation as well as civil protection (to include shelters). Other urgent issues will be energy production and the removal of explosives.
In terms of macroeconomics the effect of the conflict has been mainly damage to production and disruption to the processes of the economy. During the first year of the war there was an economic decline of 28.8% – astoundingly in 2023 the economy recovered enough to allow 5.5% growth thanks to a good harvest, the re-opening of the Black Sea ports and solutions to organisational bottlenecks. However, Putin turned his attacks in 2024 to concentrate on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure which held back growth to 3.2% and even now, in early 2025, despite unremitting attacks growth is till at 2% p.a. The underlying economic strength will be needed to foster future growth within the EU and to reduce debts while rebuilding social stability.
Turning aside from Ukraine; s notable economic survival, the human impact assessment contained in the report makes salutary reading – the unprecedented humanitarian crisis has had an especially traumatic effect on the most vulnerable 0 – the elderly, women, young people, war veteran and those with disability. A recent poll from the Centre for Economic Strategy found that less than 50% of exiled Ukrainians actually want to return.
The Build Back Better strategy is especially relevant for sectors such as transport, telecommunications and media and to tackle the extensive damage to the environment and natural resources. All levels of local governance will need to restructure and improve efficiency and effectiveness. The various planning and financial schemes set up by Ukraine’s allies will be hopefully overseeing the planning, appraisal ad implementation of the reconstruction. The stated aims of the Ukraine Donor Platform are to make possible coherent, transparent and accountable support – however, Trump’s intervention and insistence of the repayment of $174 m as well as access to Ukrainian untapped mineral wealth could complicate all this. Valuable resources such as titanium, graphite and manganese would be better exploited for the n=benefit of a recovering Ukraine.
The future options for the cessation of hostilities are seen to have three potential outcomes: continues fighting, a frozen conflict or some form of negotiated agreement.
The dream for Ukraine’s future has been clearly summed up by the ‘Yale Insights’ – “this war-torn but resilient nation could become a technological, cultural and agricultural powerhouse once freed from Russian aggression”. This view may be shared by the European ‘coalition of the willing’ chaired by Emanual Macron and Keir Starmer aiming to ensure lasting peace.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has reiterated the welcome and support the EU continues to offer Ukraine: “…We stand ready to take a leading role in the international reconstruction efforts to help build a democratic and prosperous Ukraine. This means investments will f go hand I hand with reforms that will support Ukraine in pursuing its European path.”
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/09902205114040022